No, I am not flexing. I also consulted the stars for my projections. Back in early April 2024, I updated my model to project the Ringgit for the year. And I projected that the Ringgit will be at RM4.69 per U.S. Dollar by June 2024. That has been sort of true with the Ringgit now at RM4.69 as of 16 May 2024.
While this was correct to some degree, much has changed definitely since then. Most importantly, the Federal Reserve is now talking about how interest rates will be higher for longer after inflation came out stronger-than-expected in some months (though not the recent April result).
First of, there are now uncertainties whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 bps by the end of 2024. That timeline might have been moved further backwards after the recent comments. Secondly, where is the recession? The recession should have happened by now. At this rate, many of the assumptions underlying the model is invalid.
Hence, there needs to be a readjustment of some numbers and variables. Such is the nature of projecting. Now, let’s get some basics out of the way first. The model that I have, uses Malaysia’s 1Y bond yield minus the U.S. 1Y bond yield, money supply (M3 growth), Brent crude oil prices, and terms of trade (export value/import value) to project the Ringgit for September and December 2024.
You know the 75 basis points cut? I have reduced that to only 50 basis points. And it’s sad to say that the Ringgit will probably not recover to RM4.50 by the end of the year. The model now yields a projection of RM4.63 for September 2024 and RM4.54 for December 2024. These were weaker projections from RM4.53 and RM4.50 previously.
What does that mean? The Ringgit is probably still going to be weak for the rest of the year. But that is nothing surprising given how it was the past couple of years.
